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DECEMBER RETAIL SALES HIGHER THAN EXPECTED BUT TEMPERED EXPECTATIONS REMAIN FOR Q1 2013 January 16, 2013 (0 comments)

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San Francisco, CA—Retail sales for the month of December rose 0.5%, beating expectations of a 0.3% gain. November sales also were revised upwards to a 0.4% increase from the originally stated 0.3% gain, according to a report by the Wells Fargo Economics Group. These monthly figures are separate from holiday sales. Monthly sales gains are recorded against the prior month, and also year-over-year for the same month. December 2012 sales year-over-year rose 4.7% over December 2011.

Wells Fargo’s report credits the drop in gasoline prices with putting more money in shoppers’ pockets—and also believes the fiscal cliff may not have been as much of an issue for individuals as the media suggested. Excluding gasoline, retail sales for December actually rose 0.8%.

Holiday sales, meanwhile, are measured separately. That figure combines November and December and excludes auto, gasoline, and restaurants, and it is compared year-over-year. As has previously been reported, this year’s holiday sales posted an overall 3.2% increase, far more modest than the 5.7% growth we saw in 2011 over 2010 figures.

The Wells Fargo report anticipates sales to slow in the first quarter, or even first half, of 2013 as consumers adjust to the expiration of the payroll tax holiday. But spending should pick up later in the year as the job market continues to improve, housing continues to improve, the economy—barring any political or natural disasters—continues to mend, and the fiscal cliff moves further behind in the rearview mirror.  

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