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Washington, WA--U.S. holiday retail sales are expected to pass $1 trillion for the first time in 2025, according to the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) annual forecast released on November 6. The report projects November–December sales to grow between 3.7% and 4.2% from 2024, reaching $1.01–$1.02 trillion. Last year’s sales rose 4.3% to $976.1 billion.

[Image via iStock.com/Anna Ostanina]

“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. He added that shoppers are likely to cut back on nonessentials to prioritize gifts and key purchases.

According to the report, NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews said the economy has remained resilient despite tariffs and inflation. “As tariffs have induced an uptick in consumer prices, retailers have tried to hold the line on prices given the uncertainty about trade policies,” he said.

Per the report, retailers plan to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers this year, compared with 442,000 in 2024. Mathews noted that some hiring occurred earlier to support October promotions, and retailers may wait to add more staff depending on demand.

The report highlighted the ongoing federal government shutdown as a key risk, warning that delayed spending could reduce private-sector income and weaken demand. The impact could worsen if the shutdown continues through the holiday period.

According to NRF’s separate survey with Prosper Insights & Analytics, consumers plan to spend an average of $890.49 per person on gifts, food, and decorations—the second highest in the survey’s 23-year history.

NRF’s forecast uses economic modeling based on indicators such as consumer spending, disposable income, employment, wages, and inflation. The estimate excludes auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, covering core retail sales from November 1 to December 31.

Learn more in this NRF report.