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Atlanta, GA—The latest survey by The American Affluence Research Center shows affluent consumers are ready to shop this holiday season, and significantly more women want jewelry this year. The category rose from third place to second place as the most-desired holiday gift, behind cash or gift cards.

The survey polled the wealthiest 10% of U.S. households by net worth, with an average reported net worth of $3.1 million. Preliminary results indicate that the average expenditure for holiday gifts by affluent consumers actually will decline—but more of them will go shopping, so the net result will be an increase in sales.

The survey predicts a decline in spending per affluent household by about 2%, to $2,513, which still is about four times the gift expenditures of the average U.S. household. But with nearly all affluent households making gift purchases this year, the survey predicts their total purchases will result in a 2.2% increase over the $27 billion estimated for gift purchases in 2012. Affluent consumers also are least likely to use credit or debt to finance their purchases.

The Affluent Market Tracking Study #24, the latest in a series of twice yearly surveys by AARC, reports that 97% of those surveyed say they will purchase holiday gifts this year. That’s an increase from 93% in 2012 and 91% in 2011, and tied with the pre-recession high figure of 97% in 2006.

The 11.4 million households represented by the AARC survey account for almost half of total consumer spending. Their mood and spending plans are often influenced by changes in the stock market and Washington politics. If these indicators move in a positive direction during the key shopping period after Thanksgiving, the affluent could increase their expenditures even more than they currently anticipate, as they did in 2012, when they reported spending an average of $2,564 for holiday gifts—a full 23% higher than they had originally anticipated spending when they were first surveyed in fall 2012.

Among those affluent consumers planning to purchase holiday gifts this year, 73% say they will spend the same as last year and 7% say they will spend more (an average of 10% more) on holiday gifts as they did in 2012. About 20% say they will spend less (about 14% less on average). These numbers were 6% spending more and 71% spending less, respectively, in the 2012 survey, and 3% spending more and 69% spending less, respectively, in the 2011 survey.

Cash (and gift cards) is still king. 44% of affluent females surveyed listed gift cards or money at the top of their holiday wish list of what they want to receive. But fine jewelry and/or watches were the second-most wished-for gift, with 33% of female respondents hoping that’s what they unwrap this season. Last year, jewelry ranked third behind cash or gift cards and clothing, with 22% of female respondents putting it at the top of their wish lists, and that figure had been fairly consistent with surveys prior to last year; the 33% of this year’s survey represents an 11% gain in the number of women who expressed a desire for jewelry or watches as a holiday gift.

Clothing came in slightly lower at 31%. For affluent males, the top gift expectations also are money/gift cards (46%), followed, surprisingly, by clothing (40%), and books/DVDs (22%).

The purchase index for fine jewelry and watches has been relatively stable over the past four surveys, said AARC president Ron Kurtz in an exclusive interview with The Centurion. It stands at 63 this fall, compared with 62 in spring 2013 and 63 in fall 2012.

The jewelry purchase intention index is highest (74) among affluent consumers age 50-59. There was no significant variance by net worth, though it is higher for women (69) than for men (59), Kurtz told The Centurion. Last year, younger women (under age 50) were the ones most hoping for jewelry, and those with higher incomes were also more likely to want it, compared to this year where the differences by income are minimal.

Separately, other studies are predicting a season of modest gains. An early holiday sales forecast from ShopperTrak, which measures shopper analytics, suggests a 2.4% increase in total holiday sales over 2012, taking into account all U.S. households, compared to 2012 holiday sales, which grew 3.0% over 2011. These numbers still represent some improvement over the 2010 to 2012 surveys. Understandably, those with a more positive outlook about the economy and their personal financial situation are most likely to have the strongest spending plans.

Meanwhile, accounting firm Deloitte has predicted an overall 4% to 4.5% rise in holiday sales at retailers, with online sales jumping 12.5% to 13% over last year, and National Retail Federation CEO Matt Shay in a CNBC interview described today’s shopping economy as cautious, thoughtful, and “either/or,” meaning that consumers will make choices and tradeoffs. They might choose to update their wardrobe or their computer, but not both, and recent increases in sales of big-ticket items like appliances may cause softer spending for smaller discretionary items. (Editor’s note: Shay’s remarks pertained to all consumers and did not single out affluent consumers.)

Compounded by a shortened season (25 days between Black Friday and Christmas, vs. 31 days last year), retailers are starting their holiday promotions earlier than ever and introducing new promotions to boost holiday sales. Indeed, at press time, The Centurion observed Christmas displays already in place at some local retailers.

Top image: ebay.com