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Atlanta, GA—A survey just completed by the American Affluence Research Center predicts a 4% increase year-over-year in holiday gift spending among affluent American consumers.

The 27th such study by AARC tracks purchase intentions of the wealthiest 10% of U.S. households. AARC conducts the study each spring and fall.

A year over year increase of 4% in average holiday gift purchases by the wealthiest 10% of U.S. households is indicated by the 27th survey in the original and only continuing series of tracking studies of the mood and spending plans of the affluent, as defined by net worth, conducted by the American Affluence Research Center. 

Total gift purchases of about $33 billion are estimated by this survey, now titled the Millionaire Monitor, because it is representative of the 12 million U.S. households that have a minimum $1 million net worth. Average holiday gift purchases of $2,749 are estimated for each of these affluent households.

The preliminary results of the survey indicate that the average expenditure for holiday gifts by the affluent will be about four times the gift expenditures of the average U.S. household. In comparison to 2014, the percentage of affluent households planning to purchase holiday gifts rose to 96%, an increase of three percentage points. Fewer respondents indicated plans to reduce their gift expenditures this year and those that plan to spend less report a smaller decrease in spending than previous years.

The early forecasts of other researchers range from an increase of 2.4% in sales (estimated by ShopperTrak) to a 5.7% increase (estimated by eMarketer, which includes all U.S. households.) This is a much larger increase than that experienced in recent years and is based on optimism regarding the declining price of energy and an improved job market.

ShopperTrak’s research is based on a 4.7% increase year-on-year for back-to-school season sales, which retail analysts typically use as a barometer for holiday sales. Btu retailers are taking no chances and have started holiday promotions earlier than ever and introduced new promotions to boost holiday sales, says AARC.

The different methodologies and assumptions used to develop holiday sales forecasts will make it difficult to find a consensus on what may actually happen. However, the affluent consumers surveyed by AARC are typically big spenders and least likely to need credit and debt to finance gift purchases. The 12 million households represented by the AARC survey account for about 40% of total consumer spending. Their mood and spending plans are often influenced by changes in the stock market and Washington politics. The September 2015 survey was conducted during a period of volatility and declines in the stock market, the affluent may have been quite conservative in their outlook for gift purchases, says AARC president Ron Kurtz.

If things move in a positive direction during the key shopping period after Thanksgiving, the affluent could increase their expenditures as much as 15% or more, as they have done in the past. Consumers, especially the affluent, often spend more than they planned, particularly during the holiday gift season.