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Merrick, NY—If the opening weekend is any indication, it looks like luxury jewelers are going to have a happy holiday this year. The first Centurion 2011 Holiday Success Index, our exclusive weekly spot-check survey of prestige jewelers across the United States, found more than half (61.2%) of respondents reporting sales increases over Black Friday weekend vs. the same period last year. The Centurion survey covered sales from Friday, November 25 through Monday, November 28.

Even accounting for the fact that Black Friday tends to be a day geared to door-buster specials (photo at left) rather than luxury jewelry, some creative promotions and an upbeat consumer mood contributed to the strong showing made by our respondents.

“Got that Christmas spirit!” wrote one enthusiastically. Another reported the best Black Friday in 30 years. Indeed, 38.9% of respondents reported sales gains of more than 10% over the same weekend last year, with one respondent even reporting an 80% increase!

16.7% of respondents reported sales for the weekend were even with last year’s tally for the period, while 22.2% experienced lower sales this year than last for the same weekend. These dips were anywhere from 1% to more than 10% off.

One jeweler found tremendous success with an iPad promotion. If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em, so rather than lose consumers to electronics, he gave an iPad tablet with every purchase above $2500, with the net result of a 33% sales increase over the same weekend last year. Another jeweler in Texas sold two $30,000 engagement rings on Black Friday, a day he describes as being “usually for the mall jewelers, not us.”

There were some disappointing results reported, though in many cases it wasn’t unexpected. Typically, these respondents attributed the lower numbers to location, timing, or weather.

“We are not a Black Friday destination,” wrote one. Another reported that Friday was ok but Saturday was terrible, and while bad weather may have played a role, his store isn’t in a mall or big box center, and “that’s where I feel everyone is those two days.” 

38.9% of respondents said their Black Friday weekend sales jumped 10% or more over the same period last year (red slice). 16.7% (purple slice) saw increases between 6% and 10% over last year's Black Friday weekend, while 5.6% saw modest increases of 1% to 5% (blue slice). 16.7% stayed even (orange slice) and 22.2% experienced a drop in sales ranging from 1% to more than 10% (gray slice). 

The holiday shopping season is off to a good start in general. Retailers across the United States reported robust sales for Black Friday and throughout the first weekend of the holiday shopping season, according to this article in Women’s Wear Daily. Even better, fine jewelry was cited as a very strong category by all interviewed who carry it. Tiffany & Co. and Neiman Marcus also both recently announced significant growth. Tiffany’s net sales in Q3 2011 rose 21%, while Neiman Marcus practically doubled its profits in its fiscal first quarter. Ironically, however, Tiffany stock dipped a bit Tuesday on news that European sales and some eastern United States sales were slightly lower than expected.

WWD also reported that Cyber Monday marked the most robust online shopping day in the history of e-commerce—$1.25 billion, a 22% increase over the same day last year and only the second time online shopping has surpassed the $1 billion mark in a day. Both an increase in shoppers ($10 million) and an increase in the average spend per buyer ($125) contributed to the jump. This article in SignOnSanDiego.com reports that tablets--especially iPads--and other mobile devices played a very strong role this Cyber Monday, showing a 6.9% jump in the number of people shopping with them vs. last year. Many of these sales came before and after work hours, another new pattern, suggesting that employers have begun frowning upon--or even blocking--online shopping at the office. The article also noted that iPad users in particular are good shoppers: that device drove more sales than any other mobile device and had a higher conversion rate [of browsers to buyers.]

Until Tuesday, when the Conference Board announced its Consumer Confidence Index leapt 15 points in November, recent consumer sentiment surveys were not very encouraging. But consumer behavior nevertheless has belied the numbers. Americans may tell pollsters they don’t feel very confident about the economy or the government’s ability to deal with it—but they themselves seem to be dealing with it through retail therapy. One for you, two for me: the WWD article says as many shoppers this weekend treated themselves as bought gifts. That’s good news both for the retailers and for the economy as a whole, which is 70% driven by consumer spending.

Deals may have brought many shoppers into stores, but once there, they felt confident enough to spend a bit more, according to this report in the Los Angeles Times. The same held true for virtual shoppers: Weston, VA-based research firm Comscore told the LA Times that Black Friday was the heaviest spending day on the Web this year, with sales up 26% over Black Friday 2010.

Even if they’re not confident about the overall U.S. picture, consumers do have a better handle on their own personal finance and on their own personal employment outlook, says the paper. Indeed, one shopper interviewed by the LA Times said he felt fairly confident about his job and had grown “tired of watching every penny.” He spent $300 on clothes for himself, and also bought gifts for his parents. His total holiday budget jumped 50% over last year’s. Meanwhile, ShopperTrak reported Black Friday sales up 6.6% over last year, and foot traffic up 5.1% over last year, marking the largest year-over-year Black Friday increase since the 8.3% jump seen between 2006 and 2007.

But even though consumers are shopping, the recession has changed their behavior somewhat, says ShopperTrak. They are more focused and value-driven. By the time they get to the store, they generally have an idea of what they’re going to buy and how much they’re going to spend.

Other top trends cited by WWD for the rise in sales this year were an increase in mobile shopping, good retail inventory promotion and planning, and—in line with ShopperTrak’s findings—more preliminary research done online before shoppers hit the stores. Extended shopping hours—some stores opened Thanksgiving night—also proved a boon for sales; those figures are included in Black Friday totals.