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EXCLUSIVE: CENTURION HOLIDAY SUCCESS INDEX, OTHERS, ALL SEE HAPPY HOLIDAY | December 22, 2011 (0 comments)
Merrick, NY—For the fourth consecutive week, prestige-level jewelers are reporting significant sales gains over the same period last year. In The Centurion’s exclusive 2011 Holiday Success Index for the week of December 13 through 19, 68.8% of all respondents posted higher sales in 2011 than this week in 2010. 37.5% of respondents said their sales are up at least 10% if not more from the same week last year. 25% are up between 1% and 5%, while 6.3% posted increases between 6% and 10%.
Less than one-third of respondents saw disappointing sales during the week. 12.5% of respondents saw sales decline between 1% and 5%, and another 12.5% experienced drops between 6% and 10%. Only 6.3%, however, saw drops of more than 10% against the same period last year.
Wrote one respondent, “Fortunately, it’s far busier and more consistent than the previous two Christmas seasons. [We are] selling much larger ticket items, as well.” Another respondent observed that there’s still time left and with Christmas on a Sunday this year, this last week will tell the story.
37.5% of respondents to the Centurion Holiday Success Index (red slice) reported sales up 10% or more for the week of December 13 through 19, over the same period last year. 25% are up between 1% and 5% (blue slice), while 6.3% are up between 6% and 10% (purple slice). Fewer than one-third of respondents (31.3%, gray slice) saw sales dip for the period against the same time last year.
Retail sales in general have been holding up for the season. After a roaring start on Black Friday and throughout that entire weekend, there was some concern when sales hit a lull in the following weeks. But people are spending—the National Retail Federation last week bullishly revised its holiday sales prediction upward to a 3.8% growth over last year’s figures. According to a report issued December 15, the NRF now predicts holiday sales will top $469 billion in 2011, setting a new record. NRF in early October had predicted only a modest 2.8% rise in sales over last year.
Two pieces of good news come out of the NRF survey: one, the 3.8% rise, while less than the 5.2% jump seen last year over 2009 figures, is more than a full percentage point higher than the 10-year average of 2.6% growth annually.
2009 was not the high point of shopping, as one jeweler respondent wrote in The Centurion’s survey, but this year’s gains over last year’s are significant. “After the down Decembers of 2008 and 2009, we were up 34% in 2010. For 2011, we are currently up another 26%. This may decline a bit by 12/31, but it is far and away our best year.”
The other piece of good news that came with last week’s announcement is that according to NRF’s most recent survey, reported December 15, many Americans had completed far less of their holiday shopping than they had at the same time last year. This suggests the hefty 4.5% increase in November sales figures may also mean shoppers were treating themselves and there are, for many, still gifts to buy.
“Consumer spending this holiday season has surpassed expectations, though many shoppers continue to stick to their budgets and buy only what they need, said NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz in the report.
Meanwhile, this report on ABC World News says holiday shopping has been robust, indicating an increase in confidence among consumers. With Christmas falling on a Sunday this year, as our jeweler above noted, it adds an extra shopping Saturday (or part of one, anyway). Still, most major retailers used December 17th for their big blowout promotions, said the report.
Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, told ABC that shoppers are spending with some gusto and it will set a positive tone for the economy going into 2012. But the report also warns that shoppers are sticking to their budgets, seeking bargains, and, after basics and necessities, focusing on small, discretionary items.
The International Council of Shopping Centers, after issuing some cautionary notes, last week said shoppers have gotten a second wind and headed back to the stores to do a final round of holiday shopping. Sales at chain stores rose 3.4% last week, said ICSC, spurred on by steady gains in jobs, declining unemployment, improved housing starts, stock market gains, and other positive economic indicators.
Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst for the Port Washington, NY-based NPD Group market research firm, says 68% of American consumers went shopping at brick and mortar stores in the week ending December 19, up one percentage point from the week prior.
The NPD Group’s measure of shopping conversion rate—those shoppers engaged in the experience and making a purchase—also rose. Here is a chart showing NPD’s brick and mortar conversion rates for the season.
NPD also reports online shopping dropped a bit in the week ending December 19 over the previous week. Here are the figures from its report:
Cohen expects brick and mortar to have a strong finish to the season leading up to Christmas, and an even stronger post-holiday period.
Top photo: Secretcorners.net