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NRF Expects 4.4% Rise in Retail Sales for 2026 Supported by Consumer Spending March 25, 2026 (0 comments)
Washington, DC--The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts U.S. retail sales will rise 4.4% in 2026 from 2025, reaching $5.6 trillion. The estimate is based on a forecasting model developed with Oxford Economics and was presented during NRF's State of Retail & the Consumer event.
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According to NRF, the projected increase compares with a 10-year average annual growth rate of 3.6%, excluding the pandemic period. NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a news release that consumer spending remained steady in 2025 and is expected to continue supporting the economy.
NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews said geopolitical tensions and trade policy issues could affect conditions, but noted that economic fundamentals remain stable. He added that higher-income households are expected to account for most spending growth.
NRF stated that consumer activity may increase in early 2026 due to larger tax refunds tied to the Working Families Tax Cut Act. Inflation is projected to stay elevated through midyear before easing later in the year.
Labor market growth is expected to slow, with unemployment remaining below 4.5%. NRF added in the release that consumer sentiment may remain subdued, but historically has not aligned closely with actual spending behavior.
The forecast is presented in nominal terms, with part of the projected growth reflecting real gains.
More details are available on NRF's website in this news release.