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Chicago, IL—According to the latest research from Shopper Trak, a provider of retail intelligence, foot traffic counting, and analysis, holiday sales should rise 3.0% for 2011 over last year—but the gains will come from fewer shoppers spending more per ticket.

Foot traffic is expected to decrease about 2.2% in 2011 over 2010 figures, says the organization. The 3.0% growth follows 19 consecutive months of growth, though it will be a smaller jump than 2010’s 4.1% rise over 2009.

Still—that’s not bad news, considering that the jump last year came over some dismal figures the year before, and that consumers, while cautious, clearly feel confident enough to keep shopping, as reported in last week’s edition of The Centurion.

But ShopperTrak cautions that this year it will be more important than ever for retailers to convert shoppers into buyers. So far this year, the group says shoppers are visiting an average of 3.10 stores per trip, down from 3.19 last year and far lower than the four or five stores they visited prior to the recession in 2008.

In good news for jewelers, the apparel and accessories sectors are predicted to be up, while electronics and appliances are predicted to lag this year.  Additionally, while lower-end apparel and accessories chains may be pressured to reduce prices to compete with discounters, higher-end stores should fare better as consumers seek quality products that have high perceived value and longevity of use.

At press time, ShopperTrak was still working on a breakout prediction of luxury vs. non-luxury goods for holiday, said Teresa Krueger, director of media relations. Krueger told The Centurion the organization doesn’t release data for individual retailers or products beyond the overall category of “apparel and accessories.” Jewelry falls into that category, but figures for fine jewelry alone weren’t available.

In the electronics sector, the lack of many blockbuster introductions will hurt sales, and when it comes to appliances, consumers are bargain shopping as much as possible to get deep discounts.

ShopperTrak monitors only brick-and-mortar sales, not online, said Krueger.