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New York, NY—What does Big Blue know about women’s clothes?

One would hardly expect IBM—once famous for its white-shirt culture—to monitor women’s spending for anything other than technology, but according to this article on cnbc.com, IBM just released its third-quarter spending forecast and it predicts women are ready and willing to spend for back-to-school season.

While back-to-school isn’t a significant time for jewelers, conventional retail wisdom views it as a good barometer of holiday sales. Not always—there have been years when the two did not correlate—but they do often move in tandem, and certainly one hopes that will be the case again if these predictions pan out.

Indeed, Big Blue predicts pent-up demand will result in a 9.2% increase in women’s apparel sales in the third quarter, a 6.2% gain in children’s clothing, a 5.2% increase in footwear, and 7.5% increase in sales of other clothing and accessories.

IBM’s report stands in contrast to the mostly-downbeat economic reports of late, but there’s a caveat: consumers want deals and they’re going to hold out till they get what they want.

IBM isn’t alone in its upbeat forecast. Surveys conducted by both the NPD Group Inc. and the National Retail Federation also predict consumers will spend more this year for back-to-school than they did last year. NPD’s survey showed 31% of respondents planning to spend more this year, versus 22% last year. 24% of respondents said they planned to spend less, down from 38% last year, and 46% said they planned to spend about the same (up from 40% last year).

The National Retail Federation’s BTS forecast predicts consumers will spend 14.1% more for BTS than they did in 2011, and overall sales for the season—including “back to college,” will soar 21.8%, says Women’s Wear Daily.

Rather than polling consumers directly, IBM conducted its study by analyzing social media chatter on Twitter, message boards, and blogs, and has determined it’s all about the bargain. In analyzing more than 200,000 mentions between mid-April and mid-July of this year, and comparing them with the same period last year, it found the number of mentions about promotions, discounts, coupons, or sales doubled. Consumers, it seems, got used to getting 25% to 30% off, while retailers have been trying to hold back on the discounts to sell more through at full price, or at least closer to it.

But consumers are having none of paltry 15% off deals. According to the IBM study, they say they will buy the absolute necessities now, but they’re holding out for the rest till they see the deals they want.

The encouraging figures from IBM, NPD, and NRF come amid more conservative estimates by other analysts. For example, Citigroup analyst Deborah Weinswig told CNBC that even clearance merchandise is isn’t moving fast this summer and she’s concerned that fall may continue to be challenging. Shopper Trak, the leading counter and analyst of retail foot traffic, says conversion rates (getting browsers to buy) have been weak this summer, but the organization still predicts parents will buy more clothes and school supplies than they did last year, and has predicted an overall 4% increase in back-to-school sales. The group’s figures show BTS declined sharply in 2009, barely lifted (1.8%) in 2010, but rose 4.5% last year. Retail foot traffic, which has declined for the past four BTS seasons, is expected to grow 1.5% this year, and shoppers are expected to visit more stores and browse for the best values this year, rather than do the kind of targeted shopping they have the past three BTS seasons. And Craig Johnson, president of New Canaan, CT-based Customer Growth Partners, also predicts an anemic 3.9% increase for the season.

But Jill Puleri, global retail leader for IBM Global Services, said consumers have been trained to wait for better deals later in the season—and if retailers cooperate, they will buy.

NPD Group’s study also showed more consumers plan to shop in department and specialty stores this season, but concurs that the bulk of the season’s activity will happen later. Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst for NPD, told Women’s Wear Daily, “There’s pretty decent anticipation for a better-than-expected back-to-school season. Every retailer won’t feel it, but they’ll have to earn it.”