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New York, NY—Yet another survey has weighed in with upbeat predictions for affluent spending this holiday season. According to an article in Luxury Daily, the 2013 Holiday Forecast Study by American Express Publishing and the Harrison Group shows the top 10% of affluent consumers increasing their holiday spending by 8% this year over 2012, but the ultra-top—the proverbial 1%—will actually decrease their spending a little from last year. 

By contrast, a similar survey conducted by the American Affluence Research Center found that affluent consumers actually may spend a bit less for holiday gifts this year, but more of them plan to buy gifts—97%, compared to 93% last year—so the overall result will be a net gain in sales.

The Harrison study predicts the spike in spending to come mainly from households with annual income up to $450,000 and $150,000 in discretionary income. 23% of affluent consumers will do more shopping online, and mobile continues to grow. Almost half (45%) of affluent tablet owners will use the device for holiday shopping. This suggests the importance for luxury retailers’ websites to be optimized for mobile devices, especially because the survey also found that regardless of shopping channel, affluent consumers overwhelmingly want outstanding customer service including a no-hassle return policy, and they want their shopping experiences with each retailer to be consistent.

Overall, however, the key takeaway from the study is that affluent consumers are more focused on family and friends than ever. Jim Taylor, chairman of the Harrison Group and study director, told Luxury Daily more respondents are looking to buy a special gift with enduring value and emotional significance for a spouse or partner, and twice as many respondents as last year want to increase the amount of time they spend with friend or family this year.

This article also predicts total U.S. holiday spending is expected to rise 7.7%, a much higher figure than most other surveys. The National Retail Federation, for example, is predicting a 3.9% increase, ShopperTrak predicts an anemic 2.4% increase, and accounting firm Deloitte predicts an increase between 4% and 4.5%.

Jewelry ranked a bit lower in the Amex/Harrison study than it did in the AARC’s findings. About 25% of respondents to the Harrison study plan to buy jewelry, while 33% of respondents to the AARC study put it at the top of their wish lists. But in both studies, the top gift choice still remains some kind of “currency;” i.e. money or gift cards.

Both studies polled a representative sampling of the wealthiest 10% of U.S. households.

Read more here.