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Both Consumer And Small Business Confidence On The Rise; Gold Stays Stable August 27, 2014 (0 comments)

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Merrick, NY—U.S. consumers are definitely feeling more optimistic these days. The Figures released by the Conference Board Tuesday show the August consumer confidence index rose 2.1 points to 92.4, outpacing economists’ predictions between 88.0 and 89.1, and following a huge 3.9 point gain in July as well. July’s revised reading stood at 90.3, while the August figure represents the highest level of consumer confidence since October 2007. The Leading Economic Index, meanwhile, also rose a stronger-than-expected 0.9% in July, with seven of its 10 components contributing to growth.

“Consumer confidence increased for the fourth consecutive month as improving business conditions and robust job growth helped boost consumers’ spirits,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. Overall, she added, consumers remain quite positive about the short-term outlooks for the economy and labor market and don’t seem overly concerned that situations in either the Middle East or eastern Europe will impact the economy here.

At the same time, The Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index sits at the highest level since early 2008, while the NFIB small business optimism index has broken out of the persistent range of the past three years. With sales and views of the economy more broadly improving, small businesses have showed renewed interest in expanding, hiring, increasing capital spending, and adding to inventories over the past year, says a recent report from the Wells Fargo Economics Group. Furthermore, credit and lending to small businesses—stuck in near-frozen limbo since the recession—has begun to thaw. Commercial and industrial (C&I) loans for businesses of all sizes plummeted following the financial crisis, but small business lending has been slower to recover.

Recently, however, there are signs of a rebound in small business credit. The total volume of banks’ small business loans remains depressed by historical standards, but is currently at the highest level since late 2010 and business lending and credit from non-bank sources also has increased as business owners have gotten more creative in finding financing. These nonbank sources, often run by venture capitalists, use different metrics to determine a business’s creditworthiness. But the convenience can come at a price: short-term loans from these platforms often carry interest rates that, on an annual basis, run as high as 50% or more.

According to the Wells Fargo Small Business Index, more small firms now report credit as having been easy to obtain over the past year than reported it was difficult. Households’ equity in real estate—an important source of collateral for small business loans—also has risen $2.2 trillion over the past year.

Gold, meanwhile, has been stable around $1,294 with limited volatility, and most experts expect it to remain so, at least in the short term. Data from Kitco.com shows the highest monthly average gold price for the year occurred in March, at $1,336 the ounce, and the lowest monthly average occurred in January, at $1244.80, a spread of $91. But for the last three months, the spread between highest and lowest monthly average price is only $32. 

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