Articles and News

Merrick, NY—For the final four days leading up to Christmas, 38.2% of respondents to The Centurion’s 2011 Holiday Success Index reported sales increases of 10% or more over the last-minute rush last year. Another 8.8% reported increases between 5% and 10%, and 17.6%, between 1% and 5%, for a total of 64.6% of respondents doing better in the home stretch this year than last. This, plus the consistently strong figures The Centurion surveys have noted throughout the selling season, proves that fine jewelry, such as the Oscar Heyman Bros. rings shown at left, remains a perennially popular gift for affluent consumers.

“It [the selling season] gets later and later, but it’s worth all the hard work!” wrote one respondent. Another observed that while shoppers are still conservative, there is a gradual increase in spending confidence, while another observed better weather and higher-ticket sales than last year.

One respondent said December was way off—sales down 45% from last year—but a 300% boost in November sales over 2010’s figures will bring his quarter’s totals up 20% year over year. Overall, 26.5% of respondents said sales in the home stretch this year didn’t measure up to last year, though of this group, more than half (14.7%) were down 5% or less. A small percentage of respondents, 8.8%, said sales for the final four days of the selling season this year were pretty even with last year.

For the final four days leading up to Christmas, 38.2% of respondents (red slice) said sales were up more than 10% over the same period last year. 17.6% (blue slice) were up between 1% and 5%, while 8.8% (purple slice) were up between 6% and 10%. Another 8.8% stayed even (orange slice) and 26.5% experienced some drop-off in sales from last year's figures (gray slice).

Retailers across the board have been benefiting from consumers’ improved mood this season. In November, the Confidence Board posted a 15-point gain in consumer confidence, the largest monthly jump since 2003, and its December survey shows another 10-point surge to 64.5 points, bolstered by an improving job outlook. The economy produced at least 100,000 new jobs for five months in a row, and the number of new applications for unemployment benefits dropped to the lowest level since April 2008.

The National Retail Federation two weeks ago increased its prediction of holiday sales gains by a full percentage point, from 2.8% to 3.8%. Economists at Wells Fargo are more enthusiastic, predicting holiday sales gains of about 5% over last year, while Craig Johnson, president of New Canaan, CT-based Customer Growth Partners—who claims his holiday predictions have been consistently the most accurate every year—boldly said in late October that luxury sales would rise 6.5% this year over last. And ComScore reports online holiday spending in the United States jumped 15% to a record $35.3 billion this year.

According to a report by the Associated Press in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Americans fell into four main shopping categories this season. Two are bargain hunters: one times the deals and shops accordingly, while the other responds to midnight bargain sales. A third type is sucked in by sales but later feels remorse about overspending and returns some things—showing consumers’ continued reflection about need, value, and staying on budget. Finally, the fourth type is the self-purchaser who’s tired of restraint and feels no remorse about spending as much on him- or herself as on gifts for others.

The bargain timer, especially, is largely responsible for this year’s barbell-shaped season, says the article. These are the shoppers who made Black Friday weekend a record boon for retailers, but they’re also the ones who waited out the intermediate period till retailers felt compelled to offer more deals to entice them back. In some cases, they waited even until Christmas Eve, figuring by then retailers would be in a mood to deal.

Sometimes it’s all a matter of perspective. As one respondent to the Centurion survey wrote, “Well, it certainly isn't what I had hoped for this year, but I have to step back and take everything in perspective. I am healthy (by far the most important thing in life!), and the skiing was good. Since store traffic was slow, I had a wonderful day of powder skiing on Dec. 22, something I could never do when things are really cranking! My goal this upcoming year is to make the holiday season less of a required component to a good year, and more of a bonus at the end of an already good year.”

Wise words and a good strategy for any season, we say!

The Centurion team wishes everyone a very happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year!