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Washington, DC—Retail sales saw solid growth in June, increasing in most categories on a monthly basis and across the board on a yearly basis as the recovery from the coronavirus pandemic continued.

Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said, “Continued growth in June retail sales shows enduring strength in the American consumer. Heading into the back-to-school season, we expect record sales as families purchase electronics, shoes and backpacks for in-person learning this year. 

“However, as the drop in monthly auto sales indicates, retailers are facing product shortages and supply chain constraints. We urge Congress and the administration to enact meaningful, bipartisan infrastructure legislation that is critical for retailers who depend on a safe, reliable and efficient transportation system to drive further economic growth.”
“We’re continuing to see an impressive recovery,” NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz added. “The economy and consumption are particularly sensitive to government policy, and the boost we saw from government support earlier in the year is continuing to show benefits. Reopening of both stores and the overall economy has progressed, and even higher prices seen in some retail categories reflecting the push-and-pull of supply chain challenges haven’t proven to be a deterrent to spending. As more people get vaccinated and get out, some of the growth will shift to services rather than retail but there’s enough momentum to support both.”
The U.S. Census Bureau said overall retail sales in June were up 0.6% seasonally adjusted from May and up 18% year-over-year. Year-over-year increases were unusually high this spring because most stores were closed by the pandemic during those months last year, but some stores had started to reopen by last June. Despite occasional month-over-month declines, Census data shows sales have grown year-over-year every month since June 2020.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales – which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants to focus on core retail – showed June was up 0.8% seasonally adjusted from May and up 12.1% unadjusted year-over-year. NRF’s numbers were up 19.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year on a three-month moving average.
For the first six months of the year, sales were up 16.4% over the same period in 2020. With the rate of growth expected to slow in the second half of the year, that is consistent with NRF’s revised forecast that 2021 retail sales should grow between 10.5% and 13.5% over 2020, to between $4.44 trillion and $4.56 trillion. As with NRF’s monthly calculation, the forecast excludes auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants.
June sales were up year-over-year across the board, led by increases at clothing, electronics, and furniture stores, and also up in two-third of retail categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from some key retail sectors include:

• Clothing and clothing accessory stores were up 2.6% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 49.4% unadjusted year-over-year. 
• Electronics and appliance stores were up 3.3% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 36.5% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 3.6% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 17.5% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Online and other non-store sales were up 1.2% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 12% unadjusted year-over-year.

Separately, NRF says back-to-school spending for 2021 is expected to reach a record $37.1 billion this year as families gear up for in-person classes to resume. That’s up from last year’s $33.9 billion spent on back-to-school. Back-to-college spending, meanwhile, is expected to reach a record $71 billion, up from $67.7 billion last year. Although neither category is a particularly notable one for jewelry stores, a strong back-to-school season can predict consumers’ willingness to spend for holiday.