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London, UK—Gold mine output has risen in recent years, owing to heavy investment in mine expansion and production between 2003 and 2012. In 2014 mined output rose by 2.25% year-on-year, to 2,875 tonnes. But as new mines take about five years to come on-stream, the sharp drop in investments that began in 2013 will most likely begin to show up in 2017-2018. 

In the meantime, higher output and lower investment demand is expected to weigh on gold prices. Global investment bank Natixis says a rise in U.S. interest rates may push gold prices down as the need for a safe haven dissipates. It forecasts the gold prices will average $1,150/oz in 2015, followed by a slight decline to $1,055/oz in 2016.

For silver, the main pressure on price will come from the stronger U.S. dollar and higher U.S. interest rates.  Silver is especially sensitive to the U.S. market, where the metal has a wider popularity with retail investors than in other developed countries. Natixis’s forecast for silver is an average of $15.5/oz in 2015 and $13.5/oz in 2016.

As a result of last year’s strikes, it is estimated that mined supply of refined platinum dropped by 11% year-on-year in 2014, which in turn pushed down total supply by 8% year-on-year. But higher output from recycling has offset the drop and also somewhat derailed miners’ attempts to create shortages through labor strikes. Scrap supply of platinum grew an estimated 13% year-on-year in 2014.

Natixis predicts platinum demand to grow in 2015, as new automobile sales in Europe and jewelry demand in China are both on the rise. The firm predicts platinum prices averaging $1,285/oz in 2015 and $1,500/oz in 2016.

At the beginning of 2014, palladium prices rose sharply due to the Russia/Ukraine crisis. But it would take a further escalation of the conflict in order to support those prices in 2015, so a decline is likely. As such, despite growing global auto demand, palladium prices are forecast to average $775/oz in 2015 and $740/oz in 2016.