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New York, NY—In the wake of Tuesday’s reelection of President Barack Obama, what does the future hold for retailers? On Wednesday, this blog by the National Retail Federation spelled out some likely scenarios:

• The economy remains the top issue facing the nation—same as it was the day before the election, says NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay. “The U.S. needs public policy that encourages economic growth and removes barriers to job creation. As the industry that supports one out of every four U.S. jobs, retailers look forward to continuing to work with President Obama and the new Congress toward the goal of putting Americans back to work and ensuring that our economy remains the strongest in the world.”
• The Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) is here to stay, though it may see some changes and bipartisan consensus about key implementation issues may develop.
• Look for a more active labor agenda ahead with more opportunity for labor decisions and actions by the administration and the National Labor Relations Board.
• Tax issues are tied to what Congress does during the remaining lame duck session in order to avoid the “fiscal cliff” looming in January. President Obama has called for expiration of the Bush cuts for individuals with income over $250,000 a year but House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, who kept his seat, has re-iterated his pledge to not allow the upper income rates to expire because of their impact on small businesses that report their taxes using the individual tax system. But Congress has been working on frameworks for a bi-partisan deal to address both tax and spending issues.
• The sales tax fairness bill (granting states’ authority to require online sellers to collect sales tax) is likely to be re-released with reconciliation of the difference between the House and Senate versions. It’s likely this legislation will be pushed through.
• The focus on privacy, data security and cybersecurity issues is expected to remain front and center in 2013. President Obama is expected to issue an executive order on cybersecurity in the coming days.

Read the full text here. Meanwhile, Bruce Freshley of Freshley Media/Ideal Marketing Group says by and large most jewelers have been successful in the past few years and are above 2006-2007 levels, though many have had to work harder. He says the things that have made them succesful--better training, better buying, more advertising, and gold and estate buying--will be key to continued success in the next four years. 

Separately, the NRF also reports that Hurricane Sandy has already dramatically altered shopping patterns in the Northeast, where consumers have shifted spending from optional items as is typical for Q4 holiday gift spending, to necessities. In some cases, NRF says, shopping patterns resemble back-to-school more than Christmas, as families need to replace computers, backpacks, and other items lost or damaged in the storm. Both brick-and-mortar and cyber sales in the region are down from the patterns established in the weeks immediately before the storm.

Overall, NRF is sticking to its prediction of a 4.1% increase in holiday sales for 2012. But NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz warned that in November especially, spending may shift toward home and furnishing at the expense of apparel and jewelry, which he says may decline or at best not see as robust growth as earlier expected in the Sandy-hit area.

Read the full text here.