Articles and News

San Francisco, CA—Retailers in the United States reported that retail sales for the month of July rose half a percent in July, the strongest monthly gain since March. Additionally, revised data for June suggest a second-quarter finish stronger than previously thought.

Economists at Wells Fargo Securities said in an August 12 report that these figures, while in line with consensus, show stronger resilience on the part of consumers than analysts had initially expected. Coming on the heels of so much recent discouraging economic data, Wells Fargo’s economists believe the August 12 report signals a strong start to consumer spending in the third quarter, and, together with more good news on the jobs front, diminishes the odds of a double-dip recession.

Other good economic news last week was that the number of people filing claims for unemployment insurance fell below 400,000—a key tipping point. Historically, jobless claims below this level allow the economy to add jobs fast enough to bring down the unemployment rate.

Sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, and building materials beat expectations for the report. Additionally, broad underlying details also were encouraging. Early back-to-school figures were mixed, showing increased spending in apparel stores (up 0.5%), decreased spending in department stores (down 0.8%), but increased spending (0.9%) in non-store channels such as catalog and online. (As an aside, The Centurion’s research shows back-to-school spending is increasingly moving later into the season, often stretching well beyond the actual start of the school year. BTS, as noted in earlier Centurion articles, is not a key selling season for jewelers but can be a predictor of consumers’ mood for holiday spending.)

Read the entire Wells Fargo report here.

Separately, the Financial Times reports that Home Depot, the largest home improvement retailer in the United States, boosted its outlook for a full-year profit for the second time this year as stronger sales beat Wall Street estimates.